Signal Overview
- Total MVRV < 1 Periods: 318
- Total Data Points: 3650
- Time in MVRV < 1: 8.71%
- Avg Days Between Signals: 4.8 days
Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: The Way of the 0.21 BTC
Reaching 0.21 BTC is a meaningful target for anyone starting their Bitcoin journey. This amount is enough to truly experience the world of Bitcoin, benefit from its long-term growth potential, and learn vital skills in managing and securing your coins. Setting 0.21 BTC as your first goal makes entering the crypto world accessible, motivating, and rewarding. Begin your Bitcoin investment journey with the confidence that comes from achieving your first real milestone.
Current On-Chain Valuation Status
⏳ Market Cap is above Realized Cap (MVRV > 1) — patience may be warranted for long-term accumulation strategies.
🎯 For long-term investors, the current ideal Bitcoin buy zone is between $48,162.56 and $26,981.12
Recent Market Highlights
- 📈 Last all-time high (ATH): $126,080.00 (2025-10-06)
- 💰 Last on-chain undervaluation signal (MVRV < 1): $18,747.04 (2023-01-12)
- 📊 Return since last signal: +310.26%
On-Chain Undervaluation Signal History (MVRV < 1)
How Does the MVRV Signal Work?
An on-chain undervaluation signal occurs when the Market Cap drops below the Realized Cap, corresponding to MVRV < 1 (Market Value to Realized Value ratio below 1).
What Does This Mean?
The Market Cap is the total current value of Bitcoin (current price × circulating supply). The Realized Cap is a useful on-chain proxy for the collective "cost basis" of Bitcoin holders, calculated from the price at which coins were last moved on-chain. However, it has limitations: lost coins, very old coins, and internal transfers can slightly distort the interpretation.
Why Does It Matter?
When the Market Cap falls below the Realized Cap (MVRV < 1), most Bitcoin holders are in unrealized losses. This historically rare condition suggests Bitcoin may be undervalued compared to what investors paid, and has been historically associated with favorable long-term forward returns—though past performance does not guarantee future results.
How Rare Is It?
Historically, this crossover has occurred during a small fraction of Bitcoin's history, typically during major market capitulations or bottoms. However, historical rarity does not guarantee future frequency.
📊 Advanced MVRV Signal Statistics
Historical Performance
- Avg ROI (1 month): +6.82%
- Avg ROI (3 months): +35.88%
- Avg ROI (6 months): +90.6%
- Avg ROI (1 year): +108.64%
- Best ROI: +1003.2%
- Worst ROI: -28.01%
First recorded buy signal: 2018-11-19 | Last buy signal: 2023-01-12